Wednesday, November 28, 2012

#4: How to calculate Equity in NLHE/PLO

Count Your Outs: In order to calculate your equity (your odds of winning the pot), you need to first know how many outs you have to make your hand. This becomes quick and simple with a little practice and a little memorization.

A very important given in Poker is:
  • When you're drawing OTF (on the flop), every out you have gives you roughly X(amount of outs) * 4% equity. 
  • When you're drawing OTT (on the turn), every out you have gives you roughly X(amount of outs) * 2% equity.
When you've got more then 13 outs OTF, you're required to use a different formula:
  ( X(amount of outs) * 3(%) ) -9% = Total Equity 

It's important not to forgot to move the cards that aren't outs. For example:
  • Hero holds QK
  • Villains range is narrowed to AK 
  • Flop = TJK
So our outs are:
3*A
4*9

No King (we're still outkicked)
No Queen (makes straight)

That'll give us (3+4) * 4 = 28% equity.

We'll go to Pro Poker Tools to check it up:

Hold'em Simulation ? 
95,040 trials (Exhaustive)
board: TcJsKd
HandEquityWinsTies
QK28.27%25,8562,016
AK71.73%67,1682,016

Which says we're close to matching, which is pretty cool since we can do these kind of calculations while playing.

The stronger a read you get, the more accurate your equity calculations will become, which will obvious will maximize our profits.


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